The Bear Bottoming Process

How does the current bear compare with previous bear markets? Since 1950, the bottoming process has ranged from around six weeks to eight months. We're now well into the fourth month of an apparent bottoming process.

Above is a chart showing today's bear with the eight completed bear markets since 1950 and how the S&P 500 index performed during the 12 months following the index low. Also included is the near-bear decline that accompanied the Gulf War of 1990 — just shy of the 20% decline of an "official" bear.