Thursday, February 5, 2009

January Unemployment Report Friday

We are likely to see another ugly unemployment report on Friday. The early data points are not pretty:

Layoffs: Challenger job layoffs surged to 242,000 in January — the highest level for a month since 2002. The monthly rise was +75,000 and, year over year, the increase in layoffs was 165,000.

ADP Report: 522,000 jobs lost in January, consistent with consensus expectations.

I am looking for another 500,000 plus job loss (potentially over 600,000) and unemployment ticking up to 7.8%.

So, is this expectation baked in the cake, or will the financial markets drop hard if in fact this type of number comes to fruition?

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