The expected return on stocks looks better now than it has in decades. The chart above shows the rolling 10-year annualized return on large cap U.S. stocks. As you can see, the most recent 10-year annualized returns on large cap stocks through Sep 30th were very weak at around 2% (through Nov 30th they were roughly flat). Large caps have touched these levels 4 previous times since 1827 and each time the fortunes of large cap stocks were to turn quite strongly for the better. Like the economy, the market tends to move in cycles.