A scientific, quantitatively driven, adaptive approach to economic analysis and money management.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
When Will This Ride End?
Interesting graph showing daily returns on the Dow since late 1928 (blue) along with bands two standard deviations around zero (1-year lookback).
Current volatility is at levels only seen a few times in market’s history: the late 1920’s, various points in the 1930’s, and 1987.
Notice how sustained volatility was in 1920’s and 30’s. We went years and years experiencing the kind of gut wrenching gyrations we’re seeing now. I know it’s dangerous to compare this market to that one, but if we allow history to be our guide here, this ride could be a long way from being over.
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