Saturday, September 6, 2008

Rosy Scenarios (Still)?


Wall Street analysts continue to expect a vigorous recovery in corporate earnings. Take a look at the chart - earnings over the past 3 quarters have seen a 20% haircut from the levels of a year ago. Sort of explains why the market is down roughly the same amount in price over that same time period. However, looking forward, analysts are expecting not only a sharp recovery (50% from current levels) but expect profits to surpass levels achieved prior to the financial crisis. A bit optimistic? Yes, and potentially the source of future market dissapointment (and further declines) if these earnings expectations are not met.

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