A scientific, quantitatively driven, adaptive approach to economic analysis and money management.
Monday, August 11, 2008
Market in Uptrend...For Now
The markets have been in an uptrend since the July 15 lows. The S&P 500 Index, a broad measure of the 500 biggest U.S. companies, has elevated over 7% since hitting it's low in mid July. Looking at the market from a technical and supply/demand perspective, we could see the markets rise another 3-5% in the short term, but at that point the market will hit an important inflection point - long term supply/demand factors come in to equilibrium at that point and you may have the risk of a lot of institutions exiting out of the market (after they hit their break-even points). The movement of the S&P 500 when it reaches 1325-1350 will be a key tell...
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